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What Is Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation About the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started investing in bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of talks about inflation and deflation but not lots of people actually know and think about what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and probably the most practical way to do it is to link it with money. Previously it worked quite well because the money that was issued was associated with gold. So every central bank needed enough gold to pay back all the money it issued. However, in past times century this changed and gold isn’t what’s giving value to money but promises. Since you can guess it’s very an easy task to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks are not renouncing to do so. That is why they’re printing money, so quite simply they are “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This technique not only exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money will probably be worth less, whoever is selling something must increase the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing so? Well the answer they would offer you is that by de-valuing their currency they’re helping the exports.

In fairness, inside our global economy that is true. However, that’s not the only real reason. By issuing fresh money we can afford to pay back the debts we had, in other words we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That is why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s better to grow because debts are cheap. But which are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep the money (you worked hard to obtain) in your money you are actually losing wealth because your cash is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% each year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, predicated on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is often the opposite of inflation and it is the biggest nightmare for our central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the prices of goods fall. This would be caused by an increase of value of money. For starters, it could hurt spending as consumers will undoubtedly be incentivised to save lots of money because their value will increase overtime. Alternatively merchants will undoubtedly be under constant pressure. They will have to sell their goods quick otherwise they’ll lose money because the price they will charge for his or her services will drop over time. But when there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments usually do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt can be a real burden since it will only get bigger over time. Because our economies derive from debt you can imagine what will function as consequences of deflation.

So to summarize, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Which means future generations can pay our debts. Deflation alternatively makes growth harder but it implies that future generations won’t have much debt to cover (in such context it could be possible to cover slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, Bitcoin Revolution Official are made to be an alternative for money and to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They’re limited in number and we’ll never have more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the consequences of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be possible for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins will be very expensive business can still obtain the capital they want by issuing shares of these company. This could be a fascinating alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, just for clarity, I must say that part of the costs of borrowing capital will undoubtedly be reduced under bitcoins as the fees will be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This might buffer a number of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to cover back the huge debts that we inherited from days gone by generations.